A year from now, what will be different than today? In
other words, what will most PC owners be using 12 months from
now versus what they have today? Better yet, what won't be as
important?
Personally, I feel there will be 2 aspects of a computer
that won't be as critical as they are today. Both local hard
disk space and processor speed, for instance, may not have
quite the importance. While the price of storage is declining
- for example, a good 18 GB HDD can be had for around $200 -
you have to wonder if saving information to your local hard
disk drive will be the rule. Instead, it may be the exception.
Why? Well, it turns out that saving your data to a spot on
the Web is a lot closer to reality than before. Companies like
EMC Corp, IBM, Compaq and Hewlett-Packard are either
considering, or actually involved in, the service of providing
storage space to corporations or individuals. Chances are this
will be an automatic, inexpensive process made easier as cable
modem and DSL phone connections increase bandwidth to the
Internet.
Local and network backup issues may be changing too. While
tape has always been the most cost effective way of backing up
your data, the presence of offsite backups mentioned above, or
even rewritable CD's, is looking better as the technology
improves. While CDs currently don't hold that much data -
around 650 MB - compression technology may improve that.
Still, don't throw out your tape backup units just yet.
Also, consider a product we all use, like Microsoft Office.
Saving your word processing and Excel documents to a spot on
the Web is now very easy. Often, that is on the hard drive of
the corporate Intranet file server and not on your local box.
Once again, local disk space is not necessary, even for
applications like Office, which executes well directly from a
server.
Speaking of server-centric applications, exactly how much
processing speed do we need at the PC or workstation level?
Running MS-Office on a 550MHz Pentium III seems to be just as
fast as running it on a 733MHz box. While bandwidth from the
Internet to your PC or from the server to your PC is never
enough, processing power for traditional applications like
Office doesn't seem to be that important anymore.
Another area that should change in the next year is your
display device. Though most of us now have a 17 inch or 19
inch CRT-type monitor, look for the flat panel display to
become cost-effective (a good one is now about $1,000) this
year. When combined with the small form factor of new PCs such
as Internet appliance models like the Compaq iPaq, and IBM's
NetVista PC series, the presence of a PC on a executives desk
will start to look elegant and sleek versus wiry and geek.
IBM is reportedly spending $100 million U.S. to promote
NetVista. The all-in-one-model is a 16-by-16-by-10 inches,
dark gray model built around a 15 inch flat-panel display. It
is about 75 percent smaller than typical computers.
How about home networking? Like two cars in the driveway,
the presence of 2 and even 3 computers in the basement or home
office is now normal. Both Intel and 3Com have tools exactly
for this procedure.
Naturally, wireless devices such as the Palm series will
be huge in the next year. This includes wireless email
units such as Research In Motion's BlackBerry. RIM's newest
addition, the RIM 957 Wireless Handheld is a palm-sized
handheld that is "Always On, Always Connected." Designed
to compete with the Palm VII, the RIM 957 has a relatively
large screen, a 32-bit Intel 386 processor, 5 MB flash
memory, a tiny but easy-to-use keyboard and embedded wireless
modem. Naturally you get a wireless e-mail solution and,
like the Palm or Handspring devices, you get an integrated
organizer.